Narrative Compression occurs when a community begins valuing future outcomes as if they have already happened.

People start acting like future success is already guaranteed.

Signals

• People talk about future wins as if they’re certain
• Expectations grow faster than real progress
• High prices/valuations based on what might happen
• Forecasts become overly confident
• Risks get downplayed or ignored

Community Intelligence Question

How much future success are people already treating as “locked in” today?

Insight

The more people assume the future is guaranteed, the bigger the backlash when things take longer than expected or don’t happen.